The hottest international crude oil continues to r

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International crude oil continued to rise, and the "balance point" was hard to find

London Intercontinental Exchange (ice) Brent crude oil futures closed at $81.3 a barrel on September 27, hitting a new high in nearly four years. On the same day, enterprises in the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) WTI crude oil Park in the United States did not need to launch the pollution control equipment futures on their own to close at $72.19 per barrel, also close to a four-year high. With the rapid development of international oil prices, commodity traders began to discuss oil prices

London Intercontinental Exchange (ice) Brent crude oil futures closed at $81.3 a barrel on September 27, a new high in nearly four years. On the same day, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) U.S. WTI crude oil futures closed at $72.19 a barrel, also close to a four-year high

the soaring international oil prices have led commodity traders to discuss the possibility of oil prices "breaking 100"

but "breaking 100" is not everyone's wish. Oil producing countries, oil giants and oil importing countries all have their own thoughts, which makes it difficult to find a "balance point" for international oil prices

black gold returns

as the 2008 financial crisis ended the era of record high oil prices, oil prices have been in a roller coaster state for the past decade. The oil price peaked at $140 a barrel 10 years ago, but fell to $26 a barrel in 2016 and fluctuated around $30 for a long time

at the end of 2016, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC, hereinafter referred to as OPEC) reached a joint production reduction agreement with Russia and other non OPEC oil producing countries

according to the agreement, within six months from January 2017, OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries will reduce the daily average production of about 1.8 million barrels of crude oil to alleviate the market oversupply. In May 2017, OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries decided to extend the crude oil production reduction agreement for nine months

after more than a year of efforts, certain results have been achieved in reducing production, the situation of oversupply of crude oil has been alleviated, the international oil price has come out of the trough, and has risen to more than $70 a barrel. The crude oil inventory can also be used for the compressive strength test of other materials, which has decreased significantly

in 2018, oil prices rose unabated, reaching $80 a barrel twice

it is good to postpone the increase of production

however, on June 22, 2018, OPEC held a meeting at its headquarters in Vienna and reached a consensus on the next stage of oil production policy. OPEC member countries will increase crude oil production by about 600000 barrels a day, while non OPEC oil producing countries will fill the remaining gap, with a total daily increase of about 1million barrels

Wang Xiao, director of crude oil research at Guotai Junan Futures, told the international finance news: "from the current situation, the news that OPEC held a meeting in Algiers, the capital of Algeria, on September 23 and decided not to increase production temporarily also stimulated the rise of international oil prices."

OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries did not issue a formal statement on increasing production after the 10th Joint Ministerial supervisory committee meeting held in Algeria on September 23. The signal at this time is a imitation signal

Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producer among OPEC members. Saudi oil minister Khalid Falih revealed after the meeting that Saudi Arabia has the spare power to increase crude oil production, but "not now"

"I got the news that the market (crude oil) is in sufficient supply." "I don't know which refineries that need crude oil can't get crude oil," Falih said

as soon as the news came out, the oil price rose. "This rise is a reaction to the failure of the previous expected increase in production." Wang Xiao analyzes

supply shortage concerns

in addition to delaying the production increase, there is another important reason for the recent rise in oil prices. The international oil market is taking the opportunity to hype the future supply shortage

Wang Xiao pointed out that this hype was based on geopolitical tensions

Iran has the world's fourth largest oil reserves and is the third largest oil producer among OPEC members, second only to Saudi Arabia and Iraq

after US President trump announced his withdrawal from the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue in May, the US government has restarted sanctions against Iran in the US dollar and precious metal transactions, automobiles and other fields in August, and plans to sanction Iran's oil exports and banking industry in November

the Iranian Ministry of oil issued a statement on September 23, confirming that South Korea has completely stopped importing Iranian oil, becoming the first country to reduce Iranian oil imports to zero after the United States threatened to restart sanctions on Iranian oil exports

Wang Xiao analyzed: "if the Iranian problem breaks out in an all-round way and even involves other countries in the Middle East, it is not impossible for oil prices to rise to $100 a barrel."

Pavel Molchanov, an energy analyst under Raymond James, believes that oil prices will remain high for a long time, which will last for at least three to four years

Daniel Jaeggi, President of mercuria energy trading group, said recently that the United States will impose sanctions on Iran towards the end of the year. Affected by this, the market supply will be reduced by about 2million barrels a day, which will make it possible for the crude oil price to stretch and deform and rise to $100 a barrel

last week, JPMorgan Chase released a report predicting that if the United States increased sanctions against Iran, oil prices could soar to $90 a barrel in the coming months

according to institutional analysis, the decline in Iran's crude oil exports has exceeded market expectations

previously, the crude oil market generally believed that after Iran was sanctioned, the international market may only lose 1million barrels of crude oil supply per day. In fact, according to the data of tank trackers, Iran's daily crude oil export volume in September has fallen to 1.578 million barrels, a decrease of 23.4% over August

facts global energy, an energy consultancy based in Singapore, even predicted that under the "worst case" scenario of the resumption of sanctions by the United States, Iran's crude oil exports could fall to 700000 barrels per day by the end of this year

impact on the industrial chain

under the pressure of many parties, the international oil price may stand at a high of $100 per barrel

but oil companies are not happy with its success. Total, a French energy giant, believes that "breaking 100" oil prices is not necessarily a good thing. Patrick pouyanne, CEO of total, stressed that too high oil prices may not be a good thing for the oil industry, and demand may decline, or "open a door to competitors"

Ben van beurden, CEO of shell, also said that there would be no shortage of oil in the market, but under the condition of declining inventories, crude oil supply would become tight

but beurden believes that $80 is not "unreasonable", and even a good thing in the long run. He explained that the price can stimulate the production of new supply, so as to make up for the supply gap. "We should be able to balance the market at that kind of price, but of course, bringing new output is not a short-term event"

in addition to oil companies, oil prices have a more direct impact on consumers

the latest data shows that American consumers have felt pressure under the influence of the continuous rise of oil prices. According to the federal highway administration, the high-speed traffic volume after the quarterly adjustment fell year-on-year for the first time in four years. Ole Hansen, head of Saxo Bank, even pointed out, "if the price of Brent crude oil soars to more than $120 a barrel, oil demand in emerging markets may be damaged."

(source: People International Finance News)

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