The hottest international crude oil continued to f

2022-08-11
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International crude oil continued to fall, PE market price stabilized and adjusted

I. market overview

international crude oil futures fell, Asian naphtha fell, and Asian ethylene closed flat. The ex factory prices of PE from major manufacturers are stable, the prices of linear brands are stable, the ex factory prices of individual high-voltage brands are increased, the prices of some low-voltage brands are increased, and the mainstream price ranges remain stable. The price of linear brands in the domestic PE market is mainly stable, and the price of brands in some regions fluctuates slightly. The market atmosphere is lighter than before, the merchants are actively shipping, the downstream demand is weak, the market quotation has fallen and adjusted, and the actual transaction is not much

II. Fundamental analysis

1. Following the weak economic growth and manufacturing data, the report released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that consumer spending in the United States decreased by 0.2% month on month in June, and the signals of the U.S. economic downturn increased. In addition, the manufacturing data of Europe and China are not ideal, investors' confidence in the global economic outlook is weakened, and oil prices are under pressure. At the close of the day, light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.10, or 1.16%, to $93.79 a barrel. The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery in London fell 35 cents, or 0.30%, to US $116.46 a barrel

2. On Tuesday, the price of naphtha in Asia was at a two-week low. In the second half of September, the price of naphtha naf-1h-tyo fell by $23.00 to $990.00 per ton, the lowest since July 19. The spot price in South Korea rose, but it was still at a discount. Samsung total bought 25000 tons of open specification naphtha delivered in the first half of September at a cost and freight rate of US $0.50 per ton lower than the spot quotation in Japan. Last Friday, South Korea's Lichuan naphtha cracking Center (yncc) bought 100000 tons of naphtha at a discount of $1.00. Traders said that although heavy naphtha used in the production of aromatic products is hard to serve, the situation of open specification naphtha mainly used in the production of ethylene is different. However, the question of how long the rally can last remains, and some traders are still delisting

3. The closing price of Asian ethylene market closed flat on August 2. CFR Northeast Asia quotation USD/ton; CFR Southeast Asia quotation 119 printable report and viewing experimental data 0 5 dollars/ton. The actual talk atmosphere in the spot market was quiet, and most of the operators lingered in the news of device shutdown, lacking terminal buying gas, and no transaction was heard. Recently, in addition to the shutdown of Formosa Plastics due to fire, Taiwan CPC's No. 5 naphtha steam cracking unit with an annual output of 500000 tons is also planned to be shut down for 43 days on the 10th of this month. The total capacity of six local steam cracking units in Taiwan is 4.04 million tons/year. According to the shutdown of the above units, the output will lose about 60% this month. In addition, the restart time of most units is uncertain, and the supply-demand relationship may change in the later period

4. Today, the ex factory prices of PE from major manufacturers are stable, the prices of linear brands are stable, the ex factory prices of individual high-voltage brands are increased, the prices of some low-voltage brands are increased, and the mainstream price ranges remain stable. Linearity: the mainstream quotation range of 7042 from major manufacturers is yuan/ton, and the ex factory quotation of major manufacturers remains stable. In terms of low voltage: the mainstream quotation range of 5000S of major manufacturers is yuan/ton, and the prices of some brands in various regions of CNPC are increased by yuan/ton, and the mainstream price range remains stable; In terms of high pressure: 2426h, the mainstream price range is yuan/ton, Qilu Petrochemical, Yanshan Petrochemical, Shanghai Petrochemical, Yangtze BASF, PetroChina northeast and southwest brands increased the ex factory price by yuan/ton, PetroChina northeast 18G lowered the ex factory price by 100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price range remained stable

5. In the past July, the decline in the bond market was difficult to stop, and the net value of bond funds was very injured. However, the total bond holdings of funds announced by China's bond information yesterday afternoon increased by 66.697 billion yuan, becoming the second highest level of monthly bond holdings of funds since this year, only second to 127.551 billion yuan in April

III. Market Overview

international crude oil futures fell, Asian naphtha fell, and Asian ethylene closed flat. The price of linear brands in the domestic PE market is mainly stable, and the price of brands in some regions fluctuates slightly. The mainstream transaction price of LLDPE in the domestic market is between yuan/ton, the high-pressure mainstream transaction price is between yuan/ton, and the low-pressure mainstream transaction price is between yuan/ton

1. The quotation of PE market in North China is stable, the market atmosphere is more wait-and-see, and the merchants follow the market. After the early rise, the market is adjusted in a short time, and the downstream demand is still poor, and the transaction is general. Linear mainstream price yuan/ton. Yanshan Petrochemical reported 1c7a yuan/ton, 7.0 yuan/ton, LD163 yuan/ton, ld607 yuan/ton, ld100ac 14500 yuan/ton, 2426h 13600 yuan/ton, PetroChina 7042l yuan/ton, Jihua 7042 11350 yuan/ton, 8008/t 11500 yuan/ton, Dushanzi 5502 11650 yuan/ton, 5000S yuan/ton, 5200b yuan/ton, 9455f 11700 yuan/ton

2. The quotation of PE market in East China is stable, the market supply is general, the international crude oil has fallen one after another, the mentality of merchants is slightly affected, the downstream demand is lower than yesterday, and the transaction is difficult. Linear mainstream price yuan/ton. Maoming 2426h reported 13400 yuan/ton, Yangba 2426h reported 13500 yuan/ton, 1c7a reported 17100 yuan/ton, SECCO 0220kj reported 11450 yuan/ton, Yangzi 7042 reported 11300 yuan/ton, PetroChina/Zhenhai linear reported 11200 yuan/ton, 5000S reported 12500 yuan/ton, Panjin 5502 reported 11500 yuan/ton, t reported 11600 yuan/ton, 9455f reported 11700 yuan/ton, 5301aa reported 11750 yuan/ton

3. The quotation of PE market in South China fluctuated slightly, and the regional prices rose and fell. The market atmosphere was slightly colder than before. Most merchants actively shipped, and the downstream demand was weak. They resisted high priced goods, and the transaction was light. They negotiated more. Linear mainstream is in yuan/ton. Sinopec Guangzhou reported 11150 yuan/ton in 2001, Lanhua 2426h 13300 yuan/ton, 9455f another yuan/ton, Maoming 5502 11950 yuan/ton, Panjin 5502 11750 yuan/ton, 8008 11900 yuan/ton, 8007 11550 yuan/ton, t 11700 yuan/ton, 7260 yuan/ton, N3000 11800 yuan/ton

IV. outlook

the United States and China announced poor economic data, international crude oil futures fell, Asian naphtha fell, and Asian ethylene closed flat. The ex factory prices of PE from major manufacturers are stable, the prices of linear brands are stable, the ex factory prices of individual high-voltage brands are increased, and the imitation volume of low-voltage brands: for example, the prices of 1 cup of noodles are increased, and the mainstream price ranges remain stable. The price of linear brands in the domestic PE market is mainly stable, and the price of brands in some regions fluctuates slightly. The market atmosphere is lighter than before, merchants are actively shipping, downstream demand is weak, there is a decline in market quotation adjustment, and there are not many actual transactions. PE market price is expected to fluctuate slightly in the near future

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